2021 — Analyzing the Stock Market. Are the Bubble about to burst?

Have a look at this folks:

Stock market before the plague

Under Trump, the jobs boom has finally reached blue-collar workers. Will it last? — Washington Post

Back in 2018 Washington Post reported “ — Blue-collar jobs are growing at their fastest rate in more than 30 years, helping fuel a hiring boom in many small towns and rural areas that are strong supporters of President Trump ahead of November’s midterm elections.

Jobs in goods-producing industries — mining, construction and manufacturing — grew 3.3 percent in the year preceding July, the best rate since 1984, according to a Washington Post analysis.

Blue-collar jobs, long a small and shrinking part of the U.S. economy, are now growing at a faster clip than those in the nation’s much larger service economy. Many factors collided to produce the blue-collar boom. Some are linked to short-term boom-and-bust cycles, but others may endure.

The rapid hiring in blue-collar sectors is delivering benefits to areas that turned out heavily for Trump in the 2016 election, according to the Brookings Institution, a shift from earlier in this expansion, when large and midsize cities experienced most of the gains.”

Trump Economy

Black unemployment fell to the lowest annual level ever last year, averaging 6.1 percent in 2019. Black unemployment also hit the lowest level ever last year, falling to 5.4 percent in August.

In December of 2019, the unemployment rate for African-Americans was 5.9 percent. While above the all-time lows reached last year, that is still lower than any time prior to Trump’s presidency in records going back to 1972.

On average, the unemployment rate for blacks was 11.6 percent between 1963 and 2012.

In addition, the ratio of prime-age employment-to-population for African Americans rose by more than two-percentage points over 2019. And wages for full-time black workers rose by more than 4 percent after inflation.

The Stock Market was at an all Time High before the virus hit, and even then people were talking about a bubble.


Lock Down

Black Thursday was a global stock market crash on 12 March 2020, as part of the greater 2020 stock market crash. US stock markets suffered from the greatest single-day percentage fall since the 1987 stock market crash. Following Black Monday three days earlier, Black Thursday was attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic and the Lock Down.

Fast Recovery

But the stimulus bills and the FED heating the economy with Trillions of Dollar helped the Stock Market do a fast recovery, despite great unemployment rates.

Formation of a Bubble

Despite full lock down and unemployment, several stimulus bills have been a blessing for the Financial system. The Stock market didn’t suffer at all. Contrary.

Bubble formation
Stock Market 2021

The S&P 500 did better than predicted back in late 2019. How is this possible in times like these?

My prediction

Biden signs $1,9 trillion stimulus relief bill, his first.

After the last $1,9 trillion Stimulus relief bill from the Biden administration, all tools in the Tool Box have been used. Third relief bill in a row. And the total US Debt is at staggering $28 Trillion!! And today we got the Final Verdict :

The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose last week.(March 18, 2021)

My prediction

I think this was the final straw. US is not in control of their energy anymore and Biden went to “economic warfare” with Russia.

“The ruble retreated, bond yields climbed and the cost of protecting Russia’s debt against default jumped after U.S. President Joe Biden promised the Kremlin would pay a price for election meddling.”

Exciting times, but my predictions are Bearish. When the economy opens up after the Pandemic, a lot of SMB will not, so the massive unemployment will continue. And why work when you can receive $1,400 from the Government ?

Time will tell, but I’m not optimistic.